Palin's Paltry Fundraising

I'm not going to sugarcoat it.

It seems unreal, but the Iowa caucuses could be held as early as December, depending on whether other early primary states try to leapfrog the Buckeyes. That would give Sarah Palin roughly five months to raise the $100 million that's long been considered the "entry fee" for competitiveness in the early contests. But according to reports out today, Palin's fundraising's lagging. At Wapo, "Sarah Palin’s PAC raises just over $1.6 million."

Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin raised just over $1.6 million in the first half of 2011 through her political action committee, SarahPAC, an amount that suggests she has not ramped up her fundraising for a presidential campaign.

Palin has also spent about $1.5 million so far this year, mostly on political consultants, travel and direct mail, ending up with $1.4 million on hand.

Because she is not a candidate, Palin can file disclosure forms bi-annually rather than quarterly. PAC contribution limits also are twice as high as candidate contribution limits — $5,000 instead of $2,500.

The money was raised for her political action committee, so it could not be used in the 2012 presidential race should Palin run. It’s more a measure of supporter enthusiasm and political clout.

So does $1.6 million say anything about her political ambitions or viability? Not really.

Continue reading.

Palin's not officially declared, but time's a-wastin'. See also The Hill, "Palin PAC raises $1.6M in first half of year" (via Memeorandum). And check the spin at C4P, "Sarah PAC Raises over 1.6 Million in First Half of 2011."

RELATED: The news out yesterday was how far Republicans are trailing President Obama in the money race:

Mitch McConnell Isn't Selling Out Republicans

There was a lot of fire and brimstone on the right in response to McConnel's comments, but check WSJ, "Debt-Limit Harakiri":

Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday he's concluded that no deal to raise the debt ceiling in return for serious spending restraint is possible with President Obama, and who can blame him? We've never thought the debt ceiling was the best leverage for a showdown over the entitlement state, and now it looks like Mr. Obama is trying to use it as a way to blame the GOP for the lousy economy.

This may have been the President's strategy all along: Take the debt-limit talks behind closed doors, make major spending cuts seem possible in the early days, but then hammer Republicans publicly as the deadline nears for refusing to raise taxes on business and "the rich."

This would explain the President's newly discovered fondness for press conferences, which he has rarely held but now rolls out before negotiating sessions. It would also explain why Mr. Obama's tax demands have escalated as the August 2 deadline nears. Yesterday he played the Grandma Card, telling CBS that seniors may not get their August retirement checks. Next he'll send home the food inspectors and stop paying the troops.

The reality is that Mr. Obama is trying to present Republicans with a Hobson's choice: Either repudiate their campaign pledge by raising taxes, or take the blame for any economic turmoil and government shutdown as the U.S. nears a debt default. In the former case Mr. Obama takes the tax issue off the table and demoralizes the tea party for 2012, and in the latter he makes Republicans share the blame for 9.2% unemployment.

This is the political context in which to understand Mr. McConnell's proposal yesterday to force Mr. Obama to take ownership of any debt-limit increase. If the President still insists on a tax increase, then Republicans will walk away from the talks.

More at that top link, and see Fred Barnes, "Republicans Introduce Plan, Go On Offensive."

Janice Hahn Faces Prospect of Defeat in Congressional Runoff

Here's the tag for LAT's coverage of the runoff election in CA-36 on Tuesday. And here's the latest headline: "Vitriolic South Bay congressional race nears combative finish." Not mentioned is Hahn's backing of the gang intervention program, nor are the efforts of the Hahn campaign to get Fox News 11 to STFU. See: "Gang Intervention Money Controversy Not Over Yet":

Watch the whole thing. It's riveting and real.

And see Jim Geraghty, at National Review, "Ganging Up in California's Special Election."

AP's not touching it, however. See NewsBusters, "In CA-36 Race, AP Ignores Democrat Hahn's Gang-Intervention Scandal, TV Station Intimidation."

More at The Other McCain: "CA-36: GAME-CHANGER! L.A. Station’s Report Destroys Democrat Janice Hahn."

Palin Plots Her Next Move

It's this week's cover story at Newsweek (via Memeorandum):

It's a fluffy, upbeat piece, and the photos will be splashed at airports and supermarket checkout stands nationwide, just as "The Undefeated" documentary premieres. This will drive progressives crazy. I can see Steve Benen now, incredulous that a "half-term governor" should get so much attention. And well, that's the basis if her appeal right there. Finally we have a national figure who's just one of us, unpretentious and willing to fight. I'd say it's providence, although we heard enough of that "Lightworker" stuff from the Obama cult in 2008. Palin's down to earth, and just what America needs. I hope she makes up her mind soon.

Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) Delivers Weekly Republican Address, 7/9/11

She's the highest ranking GOP woman Congress and House Republican Conference Vice Chair --- and she's a congressional mom. Her son Cole McMorris Rodgers was born in April 2007, prematurely and with Downs Syndrome:

The Republican representative is just the fifth woman to give birth while serving in Congress

'She's Got Sex Appeal': Pawlenty Aide Apologizes for Calling Michele Bachmann Hot

I saw this at London's Daily Mail earlier, "Tim Pawlenty aide forced to apologise after making inappropriate remark about GOP rival Michele Bachmann."

And it's Vin Weber who made the faux pas, a former GOP House member himself. The original comments appeared in an interview at The Hill:

"It's going to be very hard to beat Michele in Iowa. Period," Weber said of both the Iowa caucuses and August's influential straw poll in Ames.

"She's got hometown appeal, she's got ideological appeal, and, I hate to say it, but she's got a little sex appeal too," he said in a phone interview.

Oops. Can't say that. The PC language cops will be all over you. Tim Pawlenty distanced himself from the comments immediately, and here's this at Fox News, "Pawlenty Aide Apologizes for Remark on Bachmann's 'Sex Appeal'."

And of course, Representive Bachmann handled it with class:

Michele Bachmann's First Ad Buy Iowa: 'Waterloo'

Jonathan Tobin provides the background, at Commentary, "Purity Makes Good Politics":

The political value of Bachmann’s purity shouldn’t be underestimated. As Chris Cillizza wrote in today’s Washington Post, unlike most members of Congress, Bachmann’s legislative record is no burden to her candidacy. During her five years in Congress, Bachmann has not devoted any effort to “going along to get along” as most members must do in order to pass legislation. She has not brought home any “bacon” to her district because she viewed her purpose very differently than her colleagues. Instead of log rolling with other members to gain passage of pet legislation, she has spent all of her time “tilting at windmills” and generally running afoul of her party’s leadership.

Many members of the GOP establishment, including fellow members of the Republican congressional caucus, probably rolled their eyes when they saw her Iowa ad. But those who view her record on the Hill as one of failure which ought to render her candidacy quixotic, don’t get it. Her purity may make her irrelevant in Washington, but it is exactly the ticket for pleasing movement conservatives who are disgusted with the pragmatic measures getting things done requires. Far from hurting Bachmann’s chances, this attitude helps her immeasurably.

I'd add that I'm very impressed by how well Bachmann's rolling out her campaign. It's very professional, and she's turning on the heat. Bachmann's not far behind Mitt Romney at RCP's polling averages for Iowa, and Romney's already announced he's skipping the Ames Straw Poll. where a victory for Bachmann could delivery tremendous momentum for the GOP presidential caucuses in January December.

RELATED: At Des Moines Register, "Bachmann is first to sign Family Leader’s pro-marriage pledge" (via Memeorandum).

No More Mister Nice Guy: Can Tim Pawlenty Make the Sale to Voters?

From Kim Strassel, at Wall Street Journal, "Beyond Minnesota Nice":

Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty brags that as governor he stared down Democrats on taxes and spending, but can he sell it to conservative voters?

Ask Mitt Romney to opine about his time managing a blue state, and the former Massachusetts governor will mostly take a pass. Ask Tim Pawlenty about his recent tenure governing liberal Minnesota, and you could be listening for hours.

If Mr. Pawlenty sees a path to the Republican presidential nomination, it's increasingly through the Land of 10,000 Lakes. Running in a highly conservative primary as the former head of a proudly liberal state—one perpetually beset by economic woes—certainly holds its downsides. But Mr. Pawlenty isn't shying away from that past. He's intent on turning his own feisty leadership of Minnesota into his main selling point for the nomination.
This has become all the more clear this past week, as the Minnesota government shut down over a budget impasse. The focus instantly turned to Mr. Pawlenty, highlighting the risks his time as governor (which ended earlier this year) holds for his run.

Conservative critics jumped to suggest the shutdown shows Mr. Pawlenty is far from the fiscal hawk he claims to be—that he instead papered over Minnesota's budget woes. Democrats piled on, with Walter Mondale emerging to lay the entire "mess" of a shutdown at Mr. Pawlenty's feet. All this is the last way Mr. Pawlenty wants to be defined to primary voters who are only now becoming familiar with candidates.

And Mr. Pawlenty's response? Far from going on defense, this week he aired a spot on Iowa television feting . . . the Minnesota shutdown. To be precise, the ad is highlighting a 2005 Minnesota shutdown, bragging that it happened because Mr. Pawlenty refused "to accept Democrats' massive tax and spending plans." The ad also references a 2004 transit strike (caused by a fight over pension cuts), in which Mr. Pawlenty "refused to cave in to government unions." The ad's moderator notes that both situations ended with one result: "Pawlenty won."

And:

Still, Mr. Pawlenty has been playing off variations of the tough-guy-from-a-purple-state theme since he first started contemplating a run, and he has yet to get traction. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has him pulling 4.5% of voters—significantly less than Republicans who haven't even declared. This helps explain why the Pawlenty team is embracing, not running from, the Minnesota shutdown. They are happy for the headlines.

More at the link.

I like Pawlenty. He seems like a nice guy. I just don't see him getting traction, and I expect a loss in Iowa could be the end of the line for the former governor --- at least for now.

RELATED: At New York Times, "Will Republican Race’s First In Be the First Out?" (via Memeorandum).

Obama Proposes Social Security Cuts

The PBS clip is informative, but no mention of calls to reform Social Security.

But see the Washington Post, "In debt talks, Obama offers Social Security cuts" (via Memeorandum):

President Obama is pressing congressional leaders to consider a far-reaching debt-reduction plan that would force Democrats to accept major changes to Social Security and Medicare in exchange for Republican support for fresh tax revenue.

At a meeting with top House and Senate leaders set for Thursday morning, Obama plans to argue that a rare consensus has emerged about the size and scope of the nation’s budget problems and that policymakers should seize the moment to take dramatic action.

As part of his pitch, Obama is proposing significant reductions in Medicare spending and for the first time is offering to tackle the rising cost of Social Security, according to people in both parties with knowledge of the proposal. The move marks a major shift for the White House and could present a direct challenge to Democratic lawmakers who have vowed to protect health and retirement benefits from the assault on government spending.

“Obviously, there will be some Democrats who don’t believe we need to do entitlement reform. But there seems to be some hunger to do something of some significance,” said a Democratic official familiar with the administration’s thinking. “These moments come along at most once a decade. And it would be a real mistake if we let it pass us by.”

The proposal doesn't seem very specific on reforming Social Security, other than perhaps reductions in the annual inflation adjustments for recipients. That's a step in the right direction, but there's no shortage of proposals for fixing entitlements, so I'll be interested to hear what else comes up.

See also New York Times, "President Looks for Broader Deal on Deficit Cuts."

John Lennon a Republican?

Well, if true, I might be able to enjoy The Beatles again (or enjoy them more, since I won't be so reminded of Lennon's stupid political idealism, and I love George Harrison no matter what).

At the Toronto Sun, "Lennon was a closet Republican: Assistant."

And worth a look: Daniel Foster, at National Review, "Fool Comes Down from Hill." (At Memeorandum.)

Suffolk University Poll: Bachmann Gains in New Hampshire; Minnesota Congresswoman Tops Field as 'Most Conservative'

Fox News has a write up, "Poll Shows Bachmann Gaining Momentum Among NH GOP Voters." Mitt Romney is by far the GOP frontrunner in New Hampshire, but as other media outlets are stressing, Michele Bachmann comes on strong in the survey, surging 8 points in favorability since May. The Suffolk press report is here, and the poll data here. What I liked best is that Bachmann beats out the field as the "most conservative" candidate in the race. Bachmann was most conservative at 15 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 13 percent, and Romney at 11 percent. The rest of the candidates were in single digits, and the roster includes big name personalities such as Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Bachmann's had a big week. One of the indicators of that is how aggressively the Democrat-Media-Complex has been trying to take her down.

There's a whole string of threads on Bachmann at Memeorandum, and just now the San Francisco Chronicle's Mark Morford (who announced that Barack Obama was the "Lightworker" in 2008) has weighed in with the latest misogynistic sleaze attack on the congresswoman, "Michele Bachmann, Hell's Barbie":

Yes, Michele Bachmann is running for president. Michele Bachmann, fundamentalist Christian zealot, paranoid isolationist, lowbrow conspiracy theorist, heavily shellacked automaton, anti-choice anti-gay anti-everything neo-Stepford throwback and easily the flat-out nuttiest female ever to raise a hugely depressing $13 million for her clumsy campaign launch, Michele wants to lead us all to salvation.

It's been a week of virtually non-stop attacks like this. No doubt Bachmann's sending shivers down the spine of the progressive establishment. And that's on the left. Will the GOP embrace Bachmann as well, or would Beltway insiders prefer a McCain 2.0 over the Iowa-born congressional upstart?

The GOP needs a conservative candidate. And while Sarah Palin may still enter the race, Michelle Bachmann's making all the right moves, and getting some well-deserved recognition among potential voters.

RELATED: At National Journal, "Is There a 'Generic Republican' to Beat Obama in the Polls?"And the discussion with Gretchen Carlson on Fox & Friends this morning:

Romney, Bachmann Lead Republican Field in Iowa

At Des Moines Register, "Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann lead Republican pack":

Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

Bachmann's lit a fire on the prairie. She's the one to watch.

'The Local Government Pension Squeeze'

We're going to be hearing more and more about stuff like this, particularly as the Obama Depression deepens.

From Stephen Malanga, at Wall Street Journal (via RealClearPolitics).

RELATED: The process is playing out in one of the cities right next door to where I live. See NBC News Los Angeles, "Costa Mesa Mayor Pro Tem Talks About Unprecedented City Cuts." And at Los Angeles Times, "Costa Mesa's police chief abruptly quits over council's plan to slash workforce," and O.C. Weekly, "Costa Mesa Police Chief Resigns With a Letter, Calling City Council 'Incompetent' and the City's Fiscal Crisis a Lie."

BONUS: "Republicans promote Costa Mesa as a pension-slashing leader."

'Are You a Flake?' Chris Wallace Insults Michele Bachmann on Fox News Sunday

And Wallace handled Jon Stewart so well.

This is shameul.

Via Gateway Pundit:

Wallace has apologized but I'm going to look for the full interview and update.

Also at Legal Insurrection, "Chris Wallace Palinizes Michele Bachmann" (via Memeorandum). And Ed Morrissey, "Great moments in journalism: “Are you a flake?”"

Sarah Palin Heads to Iowa on Tuesday

For the premiere of "The Undefeated," the big new documentary that's perfectly timed for a major Palin announcement.

At National Journal, "Palin to Iowa Tuesday":

Just as some pundits were counting her out as a presidential candidate, Sarah Palin has laid on plans to visit Iowa next week -- one day after her tea party soul mate and potential rival, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is set to launch her presidential campaign in the same state.

Distributors of The Undefeated, a flattering documentary about Palin's political career, announced Saturday that the former Alaska governor and her husband, Todd, will attend a premiere of the movie Tuesday in Pella, Iowa.

The town, about 40 miles east of Des Moines, is home to an historic opera house where the movie will be shown.

"We are very excited to visit historic Pella and its opera house and look forward to seeing the finished film for the first time with fellow Americans from the heartland," Palin is quoted as saying in a release announcing her plans to attend the event.

The national rollout for the movie begins July 15.

Also at the Victory Film Group, "GOVERNOR SARAH PALIN TO ATTEND PREMIERE OF THE UNDEFEATED AT PELLA OPERA HOUSE IN PELLA, IOWA" (via Memeorandum).

Congresswoman Renee Ellmers (R-NC) Delivers Weekly Republican Address, 6/25/11

From the House GOP Conference:

Michele Bachmann: 'I Stand With Israel'

I saw this clip at Power Line yesterday, "BACHMANN ON ISRAEL." And following the links takes us to Atlas Shrugs, "MICHELE BACHMANN ON ISRAEL."

The greatest speech by an American leader on Israel. This is what America needs in the White House. Seriously, this is greatness. What a breath of fresh air and righteousness in Obama's current climate of hatred and jihad-enabling.

Couldn't have said it better myself!

And Blazing Cat Fur links to Caroline Glick, who writes:

I cannot remember EVER hearing a more pro-Israel speech by ANY American presidential candidate in my life.

I cannot remember EVER hearing a more cogent explanation of Israel's importance to the US by ANY American presidential candidate in my life.

And this speech came out of nowhere. She's not pandering for votes. No one asked her to say this. She just decided that she had to make a statement.

What a great woman. What a great leader. What a great American.

God bless you Michele Bachmann!

'Results Not Rhetoric'

Via Marathon Pundit, "First in Iowa: T-Paw releases TV ad":

Jon Huntsman Announces Presidential Campaign

I'm not familiar with Jon Huntsman, but he's announced his candidacy.

Left Coast Rebel is not impressed, "Jon Huntsman's Candidacy May Have Worked in Different Times..."

The one thing I have noticed is Huntsman's frankly weird presidential rollout. Candidates announced late this year, which surprised me, but Huntsman was laying the formal groundwork for a campaign while still serving as Ambassador to China. Sounds like what a Democrat would do, so I don't know.

We'll see, in any case.

More at New York Times, "Huntsman Finishes Opening Day with Big Money Haul" (via Memeorandum).

Republican Party Splitting Over U.S. Role in Libya

I don't think Obama's Libyan war violates the War Powers Act, but unlike my fellow neocons, I'm more reserved in my support for the NATO campaign against Gaddafi. Recall Victor Davis Hanson's essay at the start of the war, "A Middle East Policy in Shambles." Completely ad hoc, and spineless too, it's hard to get excited about this, especially since Afghanistan (and Pakistan) remains the central danger point in U.S. international affairs.

Anyway, I think my concerns are not unfamiliar among the wider conservative establishment. Michele Bachmann, in particular, seemed to impart the sense that America's a bit overextended at the moment. See, LAT, "GOP splitting over U.S. role in Libya and Afghanistan":

Republicans are facing a widening fissure over the U.S. role on the world stage as party leaders decide whether to confront President Obama this week over his policy toward Libya.

House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and other congressional Republican leaders have said that U.S. involvement in NATO's bombing campaign, which hit the 90-day mark Sunday, violates the War Powers Act. The House could seek to cut off money for the war as it takes up the annual Pentagon spending bill this week.

Several of the party's potential presidential candidates have called for the U.S. to quit the fight in Libya and questioned the depth of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

Other Republicans have begun pushing back, criticizing what they see as a growing isolationist agenda within the party. The result is that Republicans, once relatively unified on foreign policy issues, now have a division that parallels the long-standing split in Democratic ranks.

The debate was on public display Sunday as two of the GOP's leading figures on defense and foreign policy, Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, criticized Republican presidential hopefuls and congressional leaders who question the country's military intervention around the world.

"There has always been an isolationist strain in the Republican Party," McCain said on ABC's "This Week," "but now it seems to have moved more center stage.... That is not the Republican Party that has been willing to stand up for freedom for people all over the world."

Graham said on NBC's "Meet the Press" that any debate over cutting funding for the Libya war would encourage resistance by Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi. "Congress should sort of shut up," he said.

McCain and Graham also criticized former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who's leading in the polls for the party's presidential nomination, for referring to the fighting in Afghanistan as a "war for independence" that the U.S. should leave to others.

"I wish that candidate Romney and all the others would sit down" with U.S. commanders "and understand how this counter-insurgency is working and succeeding," McCain said.

Romney was one of several presidential hopefuls who, in last week's Republican candidate debate, focused criticism on U.S. military operations in Libya and Afghanistan. None took the sort of hawkish positions that McCain advocated during his presidential run in 2008.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), for example, questioned what U.S. interest is at stake in Libya. "We were not attacked," Bachmann said. "We were not threatened with attack. There was no vital national interest."